Lyman Menger's Blog

Hayward real estate has been hit hard by the recession with a draw down in pricing of as much as 55% at its worst.  But, the worst has passed and the median price is again climbing.  In addition, the quality of the homes on the market has improved, as well.  While at its worst, only 20 to 25% of homes being offered for sale were regular sales and not either short sales or foreclosures.  Now the market has improved to almost 50% being regular sales.

What does that mean for the buyer.  Well,  now they can negotiate their purchase to a greater extent instead of all terms being dictated to them by the banks.  In my mind, the banks have created transactions that placed the buyer under a situation of duress.  Yes, the buyer did not have to buy, but homes here in Hayward, so heavily weighted in favor of bank ownership or control, have required prospective buyers to accept the banks terms.  Thus, to buy in Hayward you do it the banks way, or you don’t choose Hayward as your home.

We, at Realty World – Neighbors, are pleased to see the improvement in condition and the increasing negotiating power of the buyer.  We like to see as close to a  win/win situation as possible for buyers and sellers so that both parties come away from the transaction feeling they received fair treatment.

What is happening to real estate in Hayward?  Well, the prices are UP somewhat, but the number of sales are DOWN a little over last year.  The number of single family detached homes is way down from last year.  Last year there were over seven hundred of these home for sale in Hayward.  Now there are a little over two hundred.  That is very good for sellers.  Lower inventory means higher prices because there are less homes for buyers to choose from.  Think about it. Buyers have pretty definite ideas about what means “home” to them.  So,  no matter who the buyer is, there are always very few homes that meet individual requirements.  And then when the inventory is down, each buyer has fewer than ever to select from.  All this is to say, if selling a home is in your  plans, now is probably the best time in this year to put your home on the market.  You will probably sell for less than you would like, but spring is traditionally the best time to sell.

What about interest rate?  They are historically low, low, and they are projected to stay low for the rest of this year, probably increasing not more than one half of a percent.  With interest rates low and home prices low, this is what we all dream about – to buy low and not have to pay an exorbitant price for the money we borrow.

Real Estate owned by banks in Hayward and sellers who are upsidedown with their mortagages have moderated somewhat so that at my last check 40% of the homes being offered for sale are straight sales.  That, while it would be nice if the percentage were higher, is a big improvement over last year in Hayward.  This gives buyers a more level playing field when negotiating their purchase.  With banks, the buyer just has to do it the banks’ way or forget  about being able to buy the home.

Come to Hayward and get the most for your money of any place in southern Alameda County.  That is what I see right now in Hayward.

That is the question that many people are asking these days.  Maybe if I wait the prices will go down some more.  Maybe they will;  no one knows for sure.  But better questions to ask are – do I need a home; can I afford a home; would I really rather own than pay rent to a landlord, etc.  If the answer to these questions is yes, then my answer is by all means buy. 

Whether prices go lower, or not,  is impossible to predict with any accuracy, but what you do know right now is that interest rates are the lowest they have been  in a generation and the only place for them to go is up.  By the end of the year, home loan rates will  definitely be higher than now, I am sure.  They already are up slightly.

There are many good housing buys out there in the market place and as we get closer to spring, the number will increase.  My suggestion if you said yes to the questions above is that you get yourself “lender approved”, locate a real estate agent that you feel comfortable with and start looking for your home now.  Whether the real estate market or the stock market, only a very few people hit the very top, or very bottom of a market cycle, so my advise is to look at all the compelling reasons for you to own a home, and if they outway the reasons not to, then jump in the water and begin the task of finding that special property that says “home” to you.  I think you will be glad you did.

What do you think?

Consider the subdivisions of Prominence, Bailey Ranch, and Stonebrea.  These are million dollar homes now selling as low as in the $700 thousands.  To be sure, not all are selling that low, but those that are selling, are selling well below one million.

In the case of Stonebrae, these are almost new homes, in a gated community manned by guards, and with a world class new county club golf course throughout the community.  Views of the whole Bay Area can be seen from this location high in th hills.  If you are in the market for ultra, upscale homes that are way below what you would pay elsewhere, one of these may be the home for you to snatch up while interest rates are still low and the price of the homes are also super low.  BUYERS WIN  -  DEVELOPERS SUFFER!

What do you think?  Do you agree or disagree that this is the Buyers time to purchase real estate?

It is my observation that there are two real estate

markets operating side by side today.  One is the

regular market that encompasses non bank own-

ed property that are placed on the market at or

near the real value of the offering, and the second

is the bank owned and short sale market where

either the bank owner or the real estate agent

who takes the listing places the property on the

market at a fictitiously low price encouraging

potential buyers to act with an auction mentality

that drives the price up to where it probably

belongs, or higher.   Buyers in this second market

have little or no bargaining power and must

comply with the terms dictated to them by the

bank owner.  If you don’t do it their way, the

buyers offer is not even considered.  And because

there are so many people vieing for each low

priced property, the buyers do not have any

ability to negotiate.

Additionally, while these predominantly lower

priced homes that qualify for FHA financing and

are thus in the first time home buyer category,

they are being scooped up by investors and

investment money pools.

This second real estate market is a frustration to

everyone involved – agents and buyers.  Almost

every bank owned property receives multiple

offers, as many as 50 or more in some cases.  Of

course only one buyer gets the property and all

the rest go back to looking.  This is absolutely not

a healthy real estate market in my opinion.

WHAT DO YOU THINK!!!

I have been in real estate a long time and now I find it hard to believe that all of these short sale people and foreclosed upon people were all duped by lenders, appraisers, and real estate practitioners.  To be sure, there are borrowers who do fall into the misled and oversold category, but it is my belief that the shear volume of these loan defaults and walk away owners indicates that many are letting the society pay for their bad choices.

What do you think??

China was not even on my radar as a place to visit – that is until our Hayward Chamber of Commerce made arrangement with a Chinese Travel Agency to sponsor a travel/shopping trip.  The trip was a whirlwind of only nine days, two of which were travel days.  But the seven days that we were there were filled with interesting places, product factories, and excellent accommodations.  All this for the unbelievable price of only $1,599.00.  The air fare alone was a discounted $1092.00 and the rest of the $1599.00 paid for all our food, hotels, and land transportation.  What a bargain. 

There were approximately 125 people who signed up for this remarkable trip.  From my office, two other people decided to go.  Also my wife, and my son and his wife were among the number.  We flew on an Air China Boeing 747 and the flight, of course, was very long.  We arrived in Beijing at about dinner time and after collecting our baggage and going through customs, our travel agent hosts escorted us to our first Chinese dinner at a fine restaurant.  Then it was off to the Beijing Hotel and bed.

In the morning, we had a breakfast based on a western food menu, and that was the fare for each morning of the trip.  After that, it was Chinese food the rest of the day.  In true tourist  fashion we began to see the sights and the various industries that are particularly Chinese.  We went to a Jade factory, a Silk factory, Embroidery and Rug factories.  We were shown how the things were made and then given the chance to purchase items – the main point of the low cost excursion as far as the Chinese were concerned.  Our tour group did buy lots of items.

One highlight for many of us was the Great Wall of China.  As many people as felt able climbed up and down the wall.  It was really something.  We were told that the Wall is the only man made thing that can be seen from the moon.  The Wall has been re-built in various area, but much of it is in disrepair.  After all, it is 1000 years old. 

We also went to the Forbidden City.  This was the Emperors’ palace area.  It is huge, covering many, many square blocks.  For the most part, that was where most of the life of the Emperor and his wives and concubines lived there lives.  There was a summer palace on a beautiful lake that some went to in the hot weather.  Just outside the Forbidden City is the huge square, the largest square in the world, Tiananmen Square.  That is where the face off with the students took place a decade ago.

From Beijing we flew to Shanghai, a huge city with a population even larger that that of Beijing.  Between these two cities there is a population that is equal to approximately the whole population of California.  This is a very modern city and also an old world city.  There are huge modern high rise buildings in the downtown area and this is also a major port city for China.

All in all this was a very enlightening and educational trip for we westerners at a very reasonable price.  I would recommend this trip as a first exposure to mainland China.  Check with your local Chamber of Commerce to see if they are sponsoring a China trip and if they are, by all means go.